It’s a new year and with it comes a range of mixed thoughts, projections, head scratching and emotions regarding our still-fragile economy. Will we continue to be locked into the Sisyphus Syndrome, pushing that huge boulder up the hill only to see it roll back down, or will we see some significant progress?
For me, admittedly not an economist by any stretch, I see some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. It’s not blindingly bright, but it’s there (and hopefully not a train). And this is coming from a person who not only sees the glass half empty at times, but occasionally totally empty and sometimes collecting dust.
By most accounts, the U.S. economy is, relatively speaking, of course, starting to stabilize. As unemployment figures improve and companies continue to see more cash coming into their coffers, life is looking better. Europe still has serious troubles, and China…well, China is China and will continue to do well, as will Asia in general. All things considered, especially compared to the years from 2008 through most of 2011, the economy is, as masterfully crooned by the Beatles, “Getting Better All the Time.” The hair-on-fire panic is at least gone and the feeling of doom and gloom is slowly passing like a bad storm.
Take a look at U.S. auto sales, for example – the best year in three. That might not be saying much given where we were, but we’ll take it. Is it because of the government bailout? Who knows? At least it’s an improvement.
Housing starts in the U.S. and the real estate industry as a whole are still in a slump, but if interest rates continue to hover around 4 percent and consumer confidence continues to trend upward, we may be seeing some traction here too. Don’t forget that retail sales over the holidays were also pretty strong.
As far as the BRIC nations are concerned, there’s optimism here as well. I’ve mentioned China already, but the Indian, Brazilian and Russian economies – probably in that order – also continue to show promise. Fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc.
All told, progress is being made – slowly, yes, but steadily. So we should focus on the good and put the bad somewhere way in the back of our collective mind where it won’t drag us down; we need to focus on going forward. Hand wringing, high-blood pressure medication and the occasional glass (or bottle) of wine might help for the short-term, but a true long-term fix will only come with vision, focus and determination – easy to say, harder to do.
So, have I written anything enlightening in my first blog ever? Unlikely. But then, I’m just one man sharing my opinion, and isn’t that what blogging is about anyway? And although I have probably also stated the obvious throughout this short piece, it reflects a positive message overall and reinforcing this message from time to time by someone with a global perspective doesn’t hurt.
Jim Allison